It is remarkable how, even in times of uncertainty, the advertising industry continues to demonstrate its unwavering ability to evolve and innovate, taking new challenges into its stride and adapting to new developments. From adopting artificial intelligence and investing in new retail media channels to navigating economic volatility, this is a sector with resilience at its very core.
This resilience is evident in 2026 media inflation forecasts that are generally very stable. ECI forecasts that overall global media inflation will be at 3.1% in 2026, a slight fall compared to the 3.8% forecast for 2025. If this prediction plays out, it will be the lowest overall global media inflation has been since 2014, except the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic.
The global economy is expected to remain stable into 2026; the IMF projects that GDP will grow by 3.1%, up slightly from the 3.0% forecast for 2025. This stability has its foundations in easing inflation and loosened monetary policy, although the road is far from even and the picture differs by region. This stability of course helps business confidence, but that is undermined by more volatile factors such as geopolitical conflicts in key regions and the erection of trade barriers, which threaten to escalate tensions between major powers such as the United States, China and the European Union.
2026 is set to be a period of intense change and activity for the media industry. The US midterm elections and the FIFA World Cup, hosted across North America, will drive significant investment into US and global media; political ad-buying is expected to reach a record high for a midterm election – affecting how much non-political advertisers pay and when their ads are aired. Developments in the media and tech industries, such as maturing retail media offerings; the embedding of artificial intelligence across all aspects of creative, planning and buying; and M&A activity including – crucially – Omnicom’s purchase of IPG will all have a seismic impact on how advertisers invest.
Overall media inflation at a global level is forecast to decrease slightly in 2026 versus 2025 levels, to 3.1%. This is the lowest global media inflation has been since 2014, excluding in 2020 - the start of the pandemic. There is a variety of factors at play, from moderating CPI inflation to a continued cooling of the media market following a period of volatility and increased demand. The picture changes at a regional level; while North American media inflation is set to increase very slightly, from 2.3% forecast in 2025 to 2.5% forecast for 2026, this is offset by decreases in EMEA (down 2.1pp to 3.2%), Asia Pacific (down 0.4pp to 3.7%) and especially Latin America (down 2.6pp to 6.4%). A key driver of the slight increase in overall North American inflation is likely to be the midterm elections in the United States, although the impact of this is subdued due to decreasing CPI inflation and a general cooling down of the market.
The difference between Offline and Online inflation forecasts at a global level is minimal; Online is expected to be at 3.4%, versus 2.8% for Offline. This difference is not uniformly reflected across the regions – while Online inflation is forecast to be higher than Offline in North America (3.3% versus 1.1%) and very marginally in APAC (3.7% versus 3.6%), the reverse is true in EMEA (2.8% for Online versus 3.6% for Offline) and LATAM (6.0% versus 6.8% respectively).
At 4.2%, OOH is forecast to see the highest inflation of any channel at a global level, followed closely by Online Video (4.1%). At the other end of the spectrum, Print is forecast to inflate by just 0.6% and Radio by 1.1%.
Keeping abreast of industry developments and, importantly, the implications for advertising investments is a gargantuan undertaking for any marketer – and one with huge ramifications for business success. Partnering with an independent consultant can help to navigate those developments and support confident decision-making. At ECI Media Management, we take a modern, data-driven approach to media performance consulting to transform complexity into clarity. We pull the right insight from the best data pools to provide forward-facing insights and impartial advice.
One of the ways in which we do this is through our biannual Media Inflation Reports. It’s critical that advertisers have access to independent inflation measurement and forecasts in order to make the right media investment decisions for their brands. Our experts have been tracking media inflation since 2012, harnessing both their deep understanding of the landscape and our industry-leading tools to understand how media pricing changes alongside industry and economic factors.
Our data comes from a number of sources, including our global network of experts, real client data and media agencies. We cross-reference it with data from industry bodies and publications, as well as agency traders and media vendors. In this way, it reflects expertise from all stakeholders with an influence on trading variables. We’re proud that our media inflation data is used as a trusted reference by advertisers, industry bodies and other key players.